Questions and Answers
Please note:
1. This is an English text written by a German. Native English
speakers who wish to help improving it please contact me. Click
here, then on
“Contact”.
2. All temperatures are given in Celsius degrees. If you’re used
to Fahrenheit, you’ll have to convert them (F=C*1.8+32).
Hence, the frequently mentioned “half-degree” (as a
temperature difference) is 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit.
Why is the climate change theory pseudoscience, what is this, and why is it dangerous?
Who invented the CO2 greenhouse effect, and what is it exactly?
What about the melting glaciers?
Doesn’t Spain already have to fear water shortage because of the climate change?
What motivates the climatists?
What do the meteorologists say about all this?
Were there no meteorologists at all in those climate research programs?
Why didn’t the protection of the ozone layer touch the complexity of the atmosphere?
In the long run, what choices do we have other than nuclear power?
What can I do?
Isn’t this website pseudoscientific too, by turning to the general public?
What caused the half-degree global warming since 1980?
Fukushima is not so dangerous, so what’s the problem?
Q:
Why is the climate change theory
pseudoscience, what is this, and why is it dangerous?
A: (This is about the
properties of pseudoscience, including the political consequences,
like the persecution of dissidents, with references to the climate
change theory. The theory itself is discussed not here but further
below. Click here if you like to skip this
section for now.)
Pseudoscience is characterized by nonscientific content which is
presented by use of scientific language. Science has a high reputation
today, and so it’s understandable that many try to
appear as scientists, to
promote their ideas. But in reality pseudoscientists are
philosophers in disguise. To
“prove” their preconceived convictions and dogmas, they
selectively use only such empirical data that fit their theories. It
seems that in this way almost everything can be “proven”.
A famous example today is creationism in which the theories are
taken literally from the Bible (like the creation of the world in six
days), and then “scientifically proven”.
Another good example, this time for real science, is
Albert Einstein’s
general relativity. This theory started out as an idea in the mind of
a physicist who had never experimented. One could think
that it’s pure pseudoscience. The theory is as
implausible as possible;
hardly anyone could understand it. Even the other physicists
(including Einstein’s friend,
Max Planck) were skeptical
for many years. But eventually the theory could be proven when during
a solar eclipse a star which was really behind the sun could be seen
beside it, so light could really be bent by the gravitational field of
a huge mass (the sun). Nature
had confirmed the idea of a genius. – Einstein formulated his
theory in mathematical language only scientists could understand.
Pseudoscientists, on the other hand, always turn to the general
public. They keep away from nature as well as from real scientists as
far as possible, because they well know that their theories cannot
hold up against either of them. They know nothing about mathematics
(or anything); their only concern is to make their theories as
plausible as possible, to
convince as many people as possible. But this is exactly what
philosophers do, in order to win followers. – Real scientists
say: “Whether a theory is plausible or not, is not the point;
the only thing that matters is that
nature agrees with it.”
Pseudoscientists say: “We don’t care about nature. A
theory is true if it sounds plausible enough for many people to
believe it.” – Real scientists say: “We love nature.
We are curious about it and want to understand it better.”
Pseudoscientists say: “We only love ourselves. We just
use nature and
‘science’ for our personal goals, like money, power, fame,
or making people believe in the Bible.”
Often pseudoscience leads to cults, like other philosophical or
religious beliefs. Real science is regarded by such cults as a
conspiracy to hide the “truth”. Pseudoscience of this kind
can mostly be identified through the tone of its language: it’s
much like preaching; you can always feel the strong
intent to reach a specific, preconceived result (and to persuade the
reader of it), instead of being open and letting nature decide. Usually
the pseudoscientists explain at length how they have found this
wonderful new theory, but how the “established scientists”
ignore it, allegedly not for scientific reasons but out of envy,
because they did not find the theory themselves. Since the
pseudoscientists have learned nothing, they cannot even understand the
objections of the real scientists (if these bother with them at all).
If pseudoscientists are powerful enough, they can even persecute real
scientists who disagree with them, like the believers of the
geocentric pseudoscience (where the Earth is the center of the
universe) persecuted
Galileo, with the threat to
burn him. The philosophers of global warming – who believe the
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to cause a climate catastrophe
– are already starting this bad habit, by calling skeptics
“climate deniers” and “politically incorrect”,
and discriminating against them professionally, especially, sadly
enough, at universities. Books and articles of dissidents are not
published anymore. This happened to Galileo too, but while back then
the Vatican was the censor, now the media censor themselves, for fear
of being “politically incorrect”. Politicians explicitly
call the boycott of “climate deniers”, like in 2006 then
British Foreign Secretary
Margaret Beckett
who even compared them to Islamic terrorists. (Needless to say that
Beckett knows as little of the physics of the atmosphere as
Al Gore, or the other
“climate savers”. They all rely on a few so-called
“experts” like oceanographer
Roger Revelle, who in 1967 at
Harvard University taught 19-year-old Gore and other students without
any prior knowledge the warming theory in a crash course. Naturally he
had to leave out the meteorological details which
he could, as a non-meteorologist, not know, and which his audience
had not understood, so
both sides had no idea what
they were dealing with. It remains a mystery how one of the
world’s top universities could endorse such pitiful
amateurism.) – Persecution, threats,
discrimination, censorship and violence are sure indicators of
pseudoscience, or of ideology in general. In real science, on the
other hand, there is no need for persecution to get a theory accepted;
every scientist can test it on nature, and examine its validity.
Here nature is the judge, not
human authorities. – To further clarify the term
“pseudoscience”, it should be noted that it only applies
to poor natural science.
Marxism was poor science too, but it was poor
social science, and as such
cannot be called “pseudoscience”. But besides this
difference, Marxism and “climatism” have much in common:
both are ideologies, and both justify persecution of dissidents and
censorship for their alleged “good cause”, although
history clearly shows that such measures are
always recognized as wrong
later. It has been suggested by some that many who were disappointed
by Marxism in the late 1980s turned to climatism, because they can
only think ideologically, and because they emotionally need the
feeling of humankind uniting against
something, if no longer
against capitalism then at least against the CO2.
I’m a computer scientist who also took some meteorology at the
university (this was, thank God, before the climate philosophers took
over!). From my point of view, pseudoscience in general is dangerous
because it spoils the ability to think really scientifically, and
because we need real scientists. So in part this website is about
explaining the difference between science and pseudoscience. (To learn
more about where I’m coming from, please go to the section
“About Myself”.
There I also describe how a simple scientific hypothesis could become
a pseudoscientific dogma.)
Specifically, the climate pseudoscience is
dangerous because it inevitably leads to nuclear power, which is
supposed to be “climate friendly” because no CO2 is
emitted. But instead nuclear waste is produced which emits
deadly radiation for many thousands of years, and which thousands of
generations will have to watch and maintain, and to protect from
natural catastrophes and terrorists. Here in Germany (and probably in
other countries too), nuclear power was stopped decades ago not
because of a few thousand environmental activists, but because the
general public more and more supported them. The public won’t do
this again if people are convinced that conventional power leads to a
climate collapse. They will consider nuclear power the smaller of two
evils. The activists seem to have the illusion they could
in the future stop nuclear power all by themselves, and even
against the general public,
otherwise they immediately stopped propagating the climate
theories. To explain why these are false anyway and pure
pseudoscience, is the second (and main) purpose of this website.
– As for the environmental activists, their motives are not
clear to me. Maybe they think that the more environmental dangers they
present, the more people will wake up to the environment. Or maybe
they don’t think anything at all. My personal suspicion is that
the nuclear industry secretly promoted the climate philosophy
and financed its propaganda machinery for long, just using the
unwitting activists, well knowing they would blindly jump at anything
that even remotely looks like protection of the environment. They
were right: The honest and well-meaning activists, who were no match
for the crafty, propagandistically trained PR strategists, fell for
the trick, took the bait and are now themselves paving the way for
nuclear power. But since this website is not about conspiracy theories
but about science, I’ll stop here. – However, it’s
safe to say that nobody believes in the climate collapse for
scientific reasons, but
because people love the
theory, because it makes them happy. (Similarly, people choose their
favorite philosopher.) Some may love it because it confirms their
longstanding conviction that the evil humans destroy the Earth; we
all are glad if our convictions are confirmed every now and then.
Others may be particularly susceptible to propaganda or want to join
the huge brotherhood of climate believers, rather than being called
“politically incorrect”. (There may be more reasons.)
The climate believers gather all information from the
“experts” of the climate collapse; other sources are
blocked out. The purpose of this, however, is not to really study
science, but to collect arguments, in order to use them against
nonbelievers in rhetorical disputes. This method of ideological
warfare is well known from politics. The believers have not the
faintest idea of what the gas equation, Dalton’s law or the
Coriolis force are. Why bother to really learn something
about the atmosphere? It’s much easier to echo the slogans of
their expert-gurus (falsely assuming that
they did their homework), and
to organize parades and pop concerts “for the climate”.
– So from all this we conclude that pseudoscience can be a lot
of things: philosophy, ideology, politics, rhetoric, ignorance,
parades, pop concerts, propaganda and persecution – but
never real natural science.
There is, by the way, another phenomenon that can easily be confused
with pseudoscience: popular
science. Science journalists turn to the general public too,
but in a completely different manner from pseudoscientists: They never
imply that their audience could
judge scientific content,
and thus never try to convince
anybody of anything. They say: “Experts found this theory. We
can’t judge its validity, and neither can our audience. But we
explain it to the public in
popular language, so everybody can get an impression of it, and thus
participate in the progress of science. If, however, somebody wants to
judge the validity of the
theory, he or she will have to enroll at a university and become an
expert first.” (Pseudoscientists say: “You don’t
need no stupid university to judge my wonderful new theory. Them lazy
professors are only after our tax money anyway. Just listen to my
theory, and you’ll immediately
know it’s true. So
wonderful is my theory.”) – Popular science has been
around for a long time now, and probably all of today’s experts
had their first encounter with science through popular science. This
website is popular too, by keeping explanations simple, and free of
mathematics. This is not a bad thing, provided that the simple
explanations are backed by real science and real mathematics,
researched and taught by real experts at real universities. (See also
here.)
Q:
Who invented the CO2 greenhouse
effect, and what is it exactly?
A: Earth’s surface emits
thermal radiation
(“blackbody radiation”
in physics), called terrestrial
radiation. It’s directed to space but, before reaching
it, it has to pass through the atmosphere. This consists of many
different gases, some of which (mainly the water vapor) are able to
absorb parts of the spectrum of the terrestrial radiation, and
transform it to heat. These gases are colloquially called
“greenhouse gases”, because of the remote similarity of
their effect to the radiation processes in a greenhouse. The
atmosphere, like every physical body, emits thermal radiation itself,
part of which is directed to the ground and warms it up; this part is
called atmospheric
counter-radiation. This way energy is caught between ground and
atmosphere. – The other part of the atmospheric radiation is
directed to space, and accounts for 89 percent of all heat that
leaves us, while 11 percent come directly from unabsorbed terrestrial
radiation. (In space, radiation is the only way to transfer energy;
heat conduction and convection require matter!) – Some
meteorological
amateurs, especially chemists, with their extremely simplified notion
of the complex atmosphere, believe global temperatures to depend on
the amounts of “greenhouse gases”, especially of carbon
dioxide (CO2), although only one of 2600 volume parts of the
atmosphere is CO2 (which is therefore called a
trace gas).
There is no real indication that the amounts of trace gases
ever influenced global temperatures; this remains speculation. Some
speculate that they do have an effect, but that the CO2’s
absorption band is already “used up”, so additional CO2
cannot change anything anymore. However, as real
meteorologists pointed out, all such speculations
are worth little to nothing because they all ignore the complexity of the
atmosphere (which will be discussed later!).
The hypothesis that a climate catastrophe could
result from an elevated CO2 level of the atmosphere caused by man
dates back to the 1950s, among others to
this
publication, by oceanographer
Roger Revelle and physical
chemist Hans Suess. But the
two non-meteorologists were not the originators of the CO2 greenhouse
theory; this was long known back then, and was already applied decades
earlier to Venus’s atmosphere. Yet earlier, towards the end of
the 19th century, physical chemist and Nobel prize winner
Svante Arrhenius
(like Revelle and Suess not a meteorologist!) developed the theory
that the ice ages are caused by a low CO2 level of the atmosphere.
This was supposed to be due to a worldwide decrease in volcanic
activity, because volcanoes emit, among other substances, lots of CO2.
The question is why so many volcanoes should stop erupting at the same
time, which does not comply with our understanding of volcanism. (More
widely known is the inverted theory according to which a giant
volcanic eruption could cause an ice age, like the Tambora eruption
caused the “year without a summer” 1816.)
But why did Arrhenius especially think of the CO2? It’s clear
why we think of it: We have
to consider all substances we induce into the “System Earth”,
and examine their possible harmfulness. With regard of the atmosphere,
the CO2, the combustion product of fossil fuel, is one of those
substances (others are the ozone or the radioactive krypton 85 emitted
by nuclear reprocessing plants, which are harmful to us, but of which
nobody ever claimed any climate relevance). – But this
environmental concern was completely unknown more than 100 years ago,
and besides, the rise of the CO2 level was not yet obvious. Thus
Arrhenius couldn’t possibly have thought of a manmade climate
change but just of the ice ages. – So why the inconspicuous
trace gas CO2? It’s not even especially efficient as a
“greenhouse gas”, for it only absorbs a narrow band of the
spectrum of the terrestrial radiation (around 15 micrometers
wavelength), while water vapor (“air humidity”) covers
great parts of the spectrum. Not only is water vapor by far the most
important “greenhouse gas”, but it plays another
significant role in the energetics of the atmosphere: 1.6 liters of
water, dispersed in the atmosphere as humidity, contain one
kilowatt-hour of latent energy (enthalpy of vaporization) which
becomes heat wherever the humidity condenses to cloud. (Hurricanes,
e.g., draw their energy from this process.) Cloud, on the other hand,
influences the energy budget of the system Earth-atmosphere, by
reflecting the sunlight, and thus keeping energy from getting to us.
– Today’s climate philosophers say: The water vapor was
always there, but never so much CO2. They assume (and obviously
Arrhenius did too) one could selectively modify one element of the
atmosphere (the CO2), while all the other elements stay the same. But
with a complex system like Earth’s atmosphere this is
impossible, because all elements are inextricably connected.
So it’s entirely possible that an increased CO2 level – as
theoretical meteorologist
Heinz Fortak suggested
– results in more cloud (a little would be enough, because no
less than 24 percent of the incoming solar radiation is lost to us
through reflection on cloud), and thus compensates its own
“greenhouse effect”.
But the complexity of the atmosphere goes far beyond that, because
everything that touches it can influence it, like plants, animals
(perhaps even butterflies, see below), mountains, and especially the
oceans. They constantly exchange energy and gases (mainly water vapor,
but also, e.g., CO2) with the atmosphere. The mathematician and
computer pioneer John von Neumann
certainly was right to call the atmosphere the second most complex
system known to us, after the human brain. And like the brain the
“system atmosphere” is highly
nonlinear,
which means that the proportionality of cause and effect
seems to be violated (which
of course is not really true; on some level it remains valid!).
Nonlinearity means that tiny causes can lead to big effects, the
most popular example for which is the butterfly which causes the
tornado. Of course nobody ever observed such a thing, but it’s
true that a tiny difference in a given state of the atmosphere can
lead to a big difference in a later state. This is what makes
predictions of the atmosphere so difficult. Nobody can, e.g., predict
a hurricane until it has formed, and even after it has, its future
behavior cannot be predicted for more than a day or so, at least not
reliably. –
Wikipedia
notes: “The weather is famously nonlinear, where simple changes
in one part of the system produce complex effects throughout.”
If a system is too complex for us to understand it theoretically, we
have to resort to experiment. Since we cannot simulate the complex
atmosphere in a laboratory (at least not realistically), we have to
induce CO2 into the real
atmosphere, and then observe its reaction.
This experiment is currently underway, although of course we
don’t burn fossil fuel to this purpose, but to gain energy. So
far the result is devastating for the CO2 theory, because there was
only a slight global warming for some time, and today we have a global
cooling, in spite of the continuously rising CO2 level.
Our atmosphere has spoken. We can reject the result just because we
cannot understand it theoretically. Or we can simply be grateful
that our atmosphere tolerates our activities so well, and so-to-speak
“understands” our need for energy. We can take this as one
of the countless gifts nature grants us.
A very wise man once said: “Had humankind waited with digesting
until the process of digestion was understood theoretically, evolution
had been impossible. People had to vigorously start digesting,
and leave the theory to a later time.”
Perhaps another word about Svante Arrhenius: He was a really genius
creator of unusual and sometimes bizarre ideas, in different
scientific fields. We need such people: Even if 9 of 10 of such
hypotheses are later proven false, the tenth might start a scientific
revolution. We just have to be careful not to take these hypotheses as
“absolute truths”. Here are some examples: 1) Arrhenius
suggested that the Earth has a tail (like a comet, only extremely
thin). This was supposed to explain the gegenschein, an astronomical
phenomenon. 2) Arrhenius was the main advocate of
“panspermia”, a theory according to which bacteria spores
travel through space from planet to planet. He calculated the optimum
size for a particle to be able to do so, and matched it with the
average spore size. Spores from Earth were supposed to reach Mars in
20, and Jupiter in 80 days. 3) Arrhenius tried to explain the changing
colors of Mars as a result of chemical reactions. This again shows his
tendency, which he probably has in common with many chemists, to reduce
everything to chemistry. With Mars this could even work though, while
the reduction of Earth’s highly complex atmosphere to one single
chemical substance (CO2) is simply amateurish and laughable. –
Of course Arrhenius didn’t win his Nobel prize for such
theories, or his CO2 speculation. At daytime, in his own field, he was
a brilliant scientist who made important discoveries. After work he
speculated and invented new theories, like others go bowling.
Q:
What about the melting
glaciers?
A: Melting glaciers somewhere
in the world are not a sign for a future climate catastrophe. Regional
variations of temperature have nothing to do with global warming. In
central Europe, the summer of 03 was several degrees too warm, the
winter of 09/10 several degrees too cool. These variations are due to
the properties of the atmospheric circulation, and are
many times as high as the
mean change of the global average, which is given in hundredth-degrees
per year. If glaciers melt in some region, this is not because of the
tiny global warming of a few tenth-degrees over decades (this would
not be enough), but because of a much more elevated temperature over
months or years due to the
circulation. This means that other regions
were cooler than normal, because the global average is –
compared to the huge circulation-related variations – nearly
constant. In other words: Glaciers melt because of a change in the
distribution of heat, not
because of a global change in temperature.
A historical case of such an effect is the polar warming 100 years
ago: As every meteorologist and every geologist at some point
must have learned, between
1890 and 1940 the thickness of the arctic ice shrank by one third, the
covered area by 10 to 15 percent. This had nothing to do with any
global warming, but with a
temporary intensification of the global circulation of the atmosphere.
Both polar regions need (and receive through the circulation) energy
from lower latitudes, and a stronger circulation provides more of it,
with the result of a local
warming of the polar regions, at the expense of the lower latitudes,
because the atmosphere is “mixed” more. After 1940 the
circulation weakened, the polar regions were more “on their
own” again, and the arctic ice grew back so fast that, during
the 1970s, concerns were raised about a new ice age. (Ironically, at
about the same time Al Gore
received his warming indoctrination from
Roger Revelle!) In no way all of this could
have had anything to do with CO2, if only because there was still
comparatively little of it around. Moreover, it continued increasing
after 1940. (The polar warming probably occurred many times before,
but remained unobserved.)
As for global (not local)
warming and CO2, there are two
incontestable facts:
1. The CO2 level of the air has increased by half over the last 200
years.
2. The real global temperature change of the atmosphere over this period
of time does not even come close to that expected theoretically
(under laboratory conditions) from this enormous CO2 increase.
From this follows
3. that the yet poorly understood, highly complex free atmosphere
reacts differently to CO2 than the laboratory. Either the atmosphere
has mechanisms – yet unknown or so far underestimated –
that are stronger that the “greenhouse effect” of the CO2,
or there is another reason for this empirical fact. There is no
indication that the atmosphere could suddenly lose its
“immunity” against the CO2. The warming prophets ignore
this immunity and predict the same warming of 5 degrees per century as
30 years ago, although this already miserably failed, because the
warming hardly exceeded a half-degree, and now we have a global
cooling. Therefore it’s more and more doubtful if the
half-degree is even caused by the CO2 (as a weakened reaction, but
nevertheless), because there have always been natural variations of
the global temperatures, even outside the ice ages. About their cause and
that of the weaker variations there are so far only speculations.
Every serious scientist must have realized by now that the hypothesis of the
CO2-related heat catastrophe has failed, even if he or she does not
have the courage to say it out loud. The problem is not that the
hypothesis was once formulated. Scientists formulate hypotheses on a daily
basis, and dismiss them if they are not confirmed. The problem is that
in this case scientific amateurs got wind of it who took the
hypothesis as an “absolute truth”. At first those were
environmental idealists who made no difference between indifferent
“climate deniers” and those (supposedly) paid by interested
parties, and real skeptics who had serious
scientific doubts (and eventually were right). This blind and
aggressive idealism was later used by politicians and capitalists.
Thus a scientific hypothesis became an ideology, a political program
and an economic factor. Now the people in charge think they
can’t go back, for fear of losing face and money. Rather they
resort to nuclear power and start the nuclear devastation of the
planet, hoping not to live to see it. (Ironically, the environmental
idealists are to a big extent to blame for this: Scientific ignorance
can make the most heroic protectors of the environment its worst
enemies, as in the case of
Greenpeace who still,
unconvincible by nature, stick to their warming, in the ridiculous
hope they could get humankind to give up power plants and civilization
altogether.) – Now to keep people on the warming track,
“warmth reporters” are sent out who have to find places
all over the world which at the time are unusually warm
due to the
circulation, in order to present them as “proof”
for the future catastrophe. Central Europe was visited by the mobile
warmth reporters mainly during the hot summer of 03 and the warm April
of 07; during the cold winter of 09/10 they were not seen here.
Perhaps they were in Vancouver, because at the Olympics there the
weather was said to be too warm. This is the selection of empirical
data to a specific purpose which is so typical for pseudoscience. If
we firmly believe that the full moon always comes with a change of
weather, we only remember the cases in which this happened. Of course
it happens sometimes, and so sometimes melting glaciers can be found
here or there.
Global warming can be compared to the arrival of the high tide on a
coast with a high swell: Each wave crest is a little bit higher than
the last, each wave trough a little bit less deep than the last. An
observer cannot see the rising of the water but only the waves (which
correspond in the example to the circulation-related variations). The
“warmth reporter” then corresponds to one who always
points at the wave crests and shouts: “There comes the high
tide!”, and who ignores the wave troughs. But the real high tide
only shows over a longer period of time, as a rise of the whole
“system”. Accordingly, we cannot perceive global warming;
we only notice the “waves” of the atmospheric circulation,
as warm, cool, dry and moist periods. For example: That on a hot
summer day on which we had had 35 degrees in 1980, under the same
atmospheric conditions we now have 35½ degrees, we cannot perceive;
this can only be determined by means of statistics. But we all notice
when a few days later, after a change in the circulation, the maximum
temperature is only 15½ (1980: 15) degrees (which causes the hasty
departure of the warmth reporters). – For propaganda purposes it
was tried to connect even a tiny global warming to properties of the
circulation (more storms etc.), but this was not convincing (e.g., the
“Katrina” hurricane season of 2005, back then presented as
the beginning of the climate collapse, remained a unique episode). If
anything, a stronger circulation can, as explained above, be the
cause (not the effect!) of a
local warming of the polar regions, which then, however, is
considerably more than a half-degree over decades. If today there
really is an increase of
storms in medium and higher latitudes, and if the arctic ice really
is shrinking (i.e. both are
not just propaganda), this means that the meteorological amateurs who
today call themselves “climatologists”,
mix up two completely different
phenomena: 1) a tiny global warming for some time without any
effect, except on statistics, and 2) an intensification of the
circulation like that between 1890 and 1940, which causes the polar
warming. This mix-up may be inadvertent or intentional, in order to
promote nuclear power by blaming everything on the CO2. But while
there are only speculations about the causes of both phenomena, at
least the second cannot possibly have anything to do with CO2, because
it occurred before, and with still little CO2 around.
The current global cooling is of course equally inconspicuous as the
former warming, and it would be equally absurd to connect to it the
cold European winter of 09/10. This was just a wave trough, and so
there also remain enough wave crests for the warmth reporters to point
at. Even if the atmosphere takes back the half-degree completely or
cools down even further, there will still be hot summers that can be
presented as a sign for a future heat catastrophe. They occurred
before the warming too; in central Europe, e.g., in 1975, 76 and 83.
Back then nobody thought of prophesying a catastrophe because of this.
– Generally people were smarter in earlier times. Here are two
examples: 1) As mentioned above, between 1890 and 1940 the arctic ice
shrank drastically. But unlike today, this phenomenon did not cause
the slightest excitement, let alone panic. There were no sentimental
stories about sad polar bears sitting on ice floes. Of course back
then there was no scapegoat to blame, like today the CO2. Also, there
was no nuclear industry who could offer the perfect solution for
the polar bears: their complete extermination through nuclear
devastation. 2)
Hermann Hesse described in
the short story “Der Zyklon” very vividly a tornado which
(on 1 July 1895) devastated parts of his hometown, Calw (which is
very unusual in Germany). Back then people took this for what it was:
a freak of nature; today – like perhaps in the Middle Ages
– it would cause a flood of darkest prophecies. The CO2 ideology
has made many of us “weather-readers” who predict the
future from a momentary weather situation, like some do from the
stars or the cards.
Q:
Doesn’t Spain already have
to fear water shortage because of the climate change?
A: It’s been known for a
long time how sensitive especially the Mediterranean region reacts to
deforestation. Spain didn’t exactly hold back on that. In
addition to planned deforestation, criminal realty speculators
committed arson on woods time and time again. If Spain
lacks water, this is the reason. Climate and water in central Europe,
on the other hand, have not changed significantly over the past
decades. Theoretical meteorologist
Heinz Fortak even suggested
that a slight global warming might be caused by the worldwide massive
deforestation. Of course this is speculation, like the CO2 theory. But
a fact is that the fixation on the universal scapegoat CO2 more and
more diverts us from the real environmental problems. It’s
always much more convenient to have one single scapegoat, instead of
complicated problems.
Consequently, the message from the nuclear industry to the
Spanish could be something like that: “Don’t worry, the
mystery is solved: The CO2 is the source of all evil! So chop down all
your trees, burn all your woods; you don’t need them anymore.
What you need is nuclear power, to exorcize the evil CO2. Then
everything will be fine, and abundant water will make Spain a Garden
of Eden.” – Instead then the following will happen: Spain
will become a desert altogether, all rain will flow through wadis
directly into the sea, and, on top of that, the desert will be deadly
from nuclear contamination.
(By the way, the idea of the “universal scapegoat” is
present throughout history. Only usually it was people, like witches
or minorities. Once the witches were burned, all the problems were
gone. I suppose we could call it progress that now for the first time
an inanimate chemical substance is demonized as
“witch”.)
Q:
What motivates the
climatists?
A: Climatists, the
proclaimers of the philosophy of CO2-related global warming, can have
different motives. As far as I can tell, there are six categories of
climatists, listed below. While the original motive is fear of the
future, based on Svante
Arrhenius’s CO2 speculation, today
this is only true for categories 1, 3 and 4. In the other categories,
personal gain replaces the original concern.
1) The believers: Non-meteorologists who are indoctrinated by other
climatists. They believe in climatism like others believe in God.
According to this new religion, every melting of snow, every heat wave
and every thunderstorm is CO2-related.
2) The scientific cowards: Scientists (mostly meteorologists) who know
that climatism is pseudoscience, and that the alleged
“symptoms”, like melting ice or
lack of water, have nothing to do with a
half-degree global temperature change, let alone with CO2. But they
keep their mouths shut and prove themselves as particularly
“good climatists”, for fear of getting
persecuted as dissidents.
3) The tactical liars: Scientists who know that the
“symptoms” have other causes, but who firmly believe in
Arrhenius’s theory. They say: “People are stupid. If we
tell them the truth and say that there are no symptoms, but that in
our opinion, and according to Svante Arrhenius, there will be a
warming of 5 degrees in 100 years, and of 10 degrees in 200 years, and
of 100 degrees in 2000 years, the stupid people will not take us
seriously. So we rather lie to them, for their own good, by presenting
them already today the first “symptoms” of the future
catastrophe, so they believe us. The stupid people will thank us later
for having lied to them.” – All propagandists said that,
but nobody ever thanked them later. The Communists lied, in order to
build “better societies” according to Karl Marx.
After these had collapsed, nobody thanked the liars. Nothing good can
ever come from lies.
4) The scientific fanatics: To them Arrhenius was infallible. So
strong is their faith and admiration for him that they preach the
everlasting warming openly, without resorting to lies about
“symptoms”, and even at the risk of being ridiculed.
5) The capitalists: People making money through climatism, like
stockholders of the nuclear industry or of producers of wind and
solar power devices (all CO2-free!). They need the CO2 fears of the
people, in order to get rich.
6) The bribed: Politicians and scientists paid by the nuclear
industry, or other interested parties. (Hypothetical.)
Of course we cannot easily tell which category a specific climatist
belongs to, except for Al
Gore who belongs to the first, and
Roger Revelle who belonged to
the fourth. The sixth category is still hypothetical, because we
have no proof for bribery yet.
By the way, not only are the “symptoms” not really
symptoms, but the measurement of such a tiny warming as a half-degree
is questionable too. (A 100 degree warming in 2000 years we
could certainly measure, but this would also produce real symptoms!)
Every motorcycle driver knows from experience that temperatures can
vary by several degrees over a distance of just a few hundred meters,
especially on sunny summer days. E.g., you can feel the cool catabatic
(=downward moving) wind from a wooded hill in quite a distance, even
with sunny meadows in between. Hence, a tiny “global
warming” could easily be fabricated by just moving the
measurement sensors a little bit in the suitable directions. Moreover,
since the data are mostly handled by climatists, direct forgery is
also possible, and was already claimed by critics in at least one
case. Measurements should be evenly distributed over the entire
planet, including Antarctica and all the oceans, which is not the
case. Instead, the gaps are filled with fictitious data, from computer
software made by climatists. In spite of the grave consequences
(nuclear power), all of this is in no way
supervised by independent observers. It’s like an election with
only one party counting the votes. – So not only are the global
temperatures technically hard
to determine when it comes to tenth-degrees, but also is the
measurement in the hands of people with philosophical or financial
intentions, depending on the above categories. It may be or may not be
coincidence: the warming started exactly after the so-called
“climatologists” (see next section, “research
programs”) had determined their huge warming at their
“World Climate Conference” in 1979. It was either bad luck
or bad coordination that the warming could not keep up with their
predictions. – If we take away the false
“symptoms” and the questionable data, there really and
literally remains only
one single basis and motive
for climatism: the 19th century speculation of chemist Svante
Arrhenius.
Q:
What do the meteorologists say
about all this?
A: Meteorologists are not just
weathermen or weatherwomen, but university graduates who went
through a long and hard curriculum that is mainly mathematical and
physical, and is solely about Earth’s atmosphere, which makes
them the best experts of it. They fought as long as
possible against the warming theory, which had been
brought upon by chemists who thought that they were smarter than the
experts, and that they could easily transfer results of laboratory
experiments to the complex free atmosphere. Only meteorologists
could know that this is impossible. In 1973 meteorologist Prof. Dr.
Fritz Möller of Munich
University wrote: “(...) a CO2 increase from 292 ppm in 1900
to 330 ppm in 1950 was registered. This, by the way, led to all kinds of
speculations about an artificial influence on the climate by man
which, however, are not tenable because other influences, like the
variations of the general circulation, are much stronger.”
(F. Möller, “Einführung in die Meteorologie”, Vol. 1,
Mannheim 1973, p. 37) By “speculations” he meant
publications like
this
of 1957, by oceanographer
Roger Revelle
and physical chemist Hans Suess,
and the subsequent propaganda which came from other non-meteorologists
at first, but later even from
nonscientists, like
politicians, actors and pop singers, i.e. from people who don’t
even know how scientific work is done. In 1971 meteorologist Prof. Dr.
Heinz Fortak of Berlin
University (FU) answered with a counterspeculation, according to which
more CO2 leads to a little more cloud, and thus compensates its own
“greenhouse effect” (H. Fortak:
„Meteorologie“, 2nd edition, Berlin 1982, p. 78). –
Had humankind listened to these
real experts of the
atmosphere, instead of listening to chemists, oceanographers, actors
and pop singers, the climate mass hysteria could have been avoided,
and along with it the future nuclear power
threat. As mentioned before, empirical data today show that the real
experts were right. (By the way, both quoted meteorologists were
deeply concerned about the
real environmental problems
of the time, like ozone or acid rain, and
thus were certainly not “bribed by the oil supermajors”,
as was later claimed of all “climate deniers”.)
Today, as “climate deniers” are
persecuted, most meteorologists hail the warming
philosophy, especially if they have jobs to lose and families to
support. This of course is understandable: Even Galileo, when facing
the stake of the Inquisition, admitted that the sun revolves around
the Earth. – If a weatherman or weatherwoman on television said
only one word against the
climate cult, this had been his or her last appearance.
“Climate deniers” at universities who speak up are
demoted or, if lawfully possible, terminated. The reason
is simple: no television station and no university wants to be branded
“politically incorrect”. (The same happens to scientists
who publish – outside the university, but under their real names
– about parapsychology. This is also considered a
“disgrace” for the university.)
The persecution came not all at once but slowly. During the 1970s
politicians, misled by fanatics, initiated “research
programs”, to determine the future climate. Only supporters of
the warming philosophy were invited, regardless of their profession,
among them geologists and (again!) chemists. These so-called
“climatologists” were supposed to predict
as big a warming as possible, and indeed they came up with values around 5
degrees per century. This method of “climate research” is
still used today, and the predictions are still the same too,
although the old ones already failed. (By the way, choosing different
scientists would not have provided a better prediction
reliability, but only
different figures. With long-term predictions of Earth’s complex
atmosphere you get the same reliability by throwing dice.) – The
fanatics then propagated the “scientific” results, in
order to increase the pressure on opponents more and more.
We have an interesting testimony from that transition time. Above I
quoted from a book by meteorologist Heinz Fortak. The quoted part
originates from 1971, but in 1982 he wrote an epilog for the second
edition, mainly about the new “research programs”. Fortak
tries to be positive about them, and renders the warming predictions,
but then his scientific ethics kicks in, forcing him to warn the
reader about the “great number of uncertainties” in such
predictions (p. 291). He describes the computer simulations of the
atmosphere and their results, but then again he stresses how
“highly speculative” “all these statements”
are (p. 293). – Of course only meteorologists doubted the
reliability of the predictions, for only they knew of the complexity
of the atmosphere. The chemists had no doubts because to them
Earth’s atmosphere is the same as a shoebox filled with air.
However, after the politicians, for whatever reasons, had proclaimed
the result to be the “absolute truth”, and every
different opinion to be “politically incorrect”, the
meteorologists had to decide whether to convert to the warming
philosophy, or to heroically resist, and then get persecuted and
finished. Fortak’s epilog shows that in 1982 he was already
half-willing to give in to the pressure, while at the same time his
professional conscience still bothered him.
Imagine that politicians, misled by fanatical creationists, initiate
“research programs” to prove that evolution is wrong, and
that the world was literally created in six days. Scientists who are
opposed to this, like almost all biologists, geologists and
astronomers, are terminated and replaced by ideologues and
opportunists who have learned nothing. Of course these successfully
“prove” creationism, but, among other things, research
about the mutation of viruses and bacteria stops, because mutation is
part of evolution and therefore “politically incorrect”,
and because the experts are gone. Epidemics can eradicate humankind,
just like climatism can eradicate all life on Earth through nuclear
devastation. One way or another pseudoscience will kill us if we
don’t stop it.
Q:
Were there no meteorologists at all
in those climate research programs?
A: Of course there were. Not
all meteorologists are scrupulous enough to resist such a temptation.
Being chosen for a national (or even international) research program
is not only a great honor, but also very lucrative, because large
amounts of taxpayers’ money go into such programs. Moreover,
it’s great fun to sit around with all kinds of scientists,
chat, drink coffee and play with computers. It’s
pseudoscientific paradise. When the money is used up, the result that
was already determined at the beginning is announced. And the best
thing: Unlike weather forecasters, “climatologists” can
never be held responsible for their predictions! If they prophesy the
climate of, say, 2100, chances are that they will all be deceased by
then. (Please note: This description only applies to
pseudoscientific
“research”. There is enough
really scientific research
going on that is important to all of us.)
Q:
Why didn’t the protection of
the ozone layer touch the complexity of the atmosphere?
A: This refers to a remark in the
“Links” section.
The complexity of the atmosphere described
above only concerns the
troposphere, the lowest layer
which reaches up to a height mostly between 10 and 15 kilometers.
Above lies the stratosphere
which contains the ozone layer. This was threatened by chemically
highly stable gases which were released mainly from spray cans. The
gases had to wander from the ground through the troposphere to the
ozone layer. By doing so, they of course were influenced by the complex
weather, which could delay or accelerate their transport. But it was
safe to say that
eventually they had to
somehow reach the ozone layer, by means of
diffusion, the tendency of
every gas to attain a constant concentration over the whole
atmosphere. In other words: While they were
temporarily influenced by the
complexity, eventually it
didn’t matter. There was never any indication they could also
harm the troposphere. Their effect on the ozone layer could be
scientifically understood, and also simulated in the laboratory. There
is nothing complex about it, just plain physics and chemistry. Today,
after we drastically reduced the emission of the gases, the ozone
layer is starting to recover, but this will still take some time,
because the stable gases won’t disappear easily. Since they act
catalytic, they are not eaten up while doing their “work”.
The effect of CO2, on the other hand, can be neither understood nor
simulated, because it is, as I tried to outline above, part of the
complex energetics of the atmosphere (troposphere). Considering the
unpredictability of this, the only plausible reason for fighting
CO2 could be the “green ideology”, according to which
everything humankind does is
bad. (This includes, e.g., the building of houses.) According to
this ideology, Earth would be paradise if humans had never existed. But
this is not true: there were ice ages and there was the medieval warm
period when it was warmer than today, neither of which we can really
explain. There always were storms, droughts, floods, volcanoes,
earthquakes, tsunamis and occasionally an asteroid. This is not
exactly what we would call a “paradise”. – The only
reasonable thing for us to do is to restrict our measures to what we
really understand –
instead of blind pseudoscientific action –, and then
trust that our planet will
keep providing for us, which, however, will be difficult once
it’s contaminated with radioactivity.
But something we could
achieve is the protection of the ozone layer. The funny thing is that
the gases were also made out as “greenhouse gases”.
Apparently even in a time of global cooling scientists (probably
chemists) test gases for the “greenhouse property”, i.e.
the ability to absorb thermal radiation of any wavelength between 3 and
60 micrometers. This now seems an established attribute of a gas, like
the specific weight, only without any practical application.
Q:
In the long run, what choices do we
have other than nuclear power?
A: Only efficient energy
sources will be discussed here. This excludes, e.g., wind and solar
power which are inefficient, and only of propagandistic value. (The
propaganda suggests that we don’t need power plants anymore
because of these “green” energy sources. This claim, which
can be easily refuted, will keep not one single nuclear power plant
from being built. Moreover, the immense subsidies on these (nearly)
useless gadgets weaken our economies, and the growing number of
“windmills” turn our last remaining natural landscapes
into industrial areas.) – So today we have fossil fuel, with its huge
but still limited supply, and with its alleged harmfulness to the
climate, and nuclear power, with its waste which is deadly for many
thousands of years. In the future we could have nuclear fusion which
produces little radiation and no nuclear waste, and which comes in two
variants: hot and cold. Hot fusion has been researched for decades
without success; a new attempt is currently made in France. (We know
that it works
in principle because the sun
uses it.) Cold fusion, on the other hand, is still a mystery: in 1989
an expert panel organized by the United States Department of Energy
stated that “nuclear fusion of the type postulated would be
inconsistent with current understanding and, if verified, would
require theory to be extended in an unexpected way”
(Wikipedia).
In other words: Cold fusion appears to work, but according to our
current physics this cannot be. – Moreover, we could in the
future have energy sources we cannot even think of today, like 100
years ago nobody could think of nuclear energy.
To understand cold fusion, or to find something completely new, our
physics will have to evolve. Since ancient times scientists tend to
believe that they live in the time when science is finished. When
Max Planck was still a
student, his professor warned him to try anything in theoretical
physics, because there was nothing more to discover in this field.
Planck did not take his advice; instead, he revolutionized physics
with his quantum theory. A few years before his death, Planck gave his
fellow physicists the inverted advice:
not to regard quantum theory
as the end of physics, as he knew most of them did. During the 70
years since then physics has not evolved much; we still have the
problem today that quantum theory does not comply with general
relativity. Attempts to find a “unified field theory” were
not successful so far, except for, perhaps,
Heim’s theory
which, however, has not gained much attention yet, for several
reasons.
One reason is that Heim’s theory is
“too revolutionary”: It’s the first physical theory
in which space (i.e. “space-time”) and matter are not
separated (in the sense that matter is “located” in
space). Instead, space and matter are both manifestations of an
underlying six-dimensional hyperspace. According to the few physicists
researching the field, the theory resolves the inconsistencies of
traditional physics. Be that as it may: to me it’s interesting
that the theory as the only one also promises to explain at a later
stage phenomena like telepathy, which after decades of research is
empirically proven beyond reasonable doubt (about 1:1 billion). This
is not so much a problem for telepathy and related phenomena as it is
for our physics. Science should always try to explain as many
phenomena as possible. The more natural phenomena a theory can
explain, the closer it is to nature, and the more likely to provide
new technologies. We should find it rather disturbing that there are
so many phenomena that
directly contradict our
current physics, because this means that its concept of space, time
and matter contradicts reality. Reductionism (the exclusion of
inconvenient phenomena) may be temporarily necessary, but continued
forever it moves science into the vicinity of pseudoscience, the main
feature of which is the selection of convenient data. To simply label
such phenomena “supernatural” is a poor excuse: this is
what natives of remote islands say about our planes and cars.
Suppose we now build countless nuclear power plants – not
out of real need, but because of the pseudoscientific climate
philosophy –, and 10 or 20 years later a breakthrough is
achieved in a new energy technology. What can we do then? The power
plants were too expensive to just tear them down, and besides, this
would cost even more than building them because they are contaminated.
The German taxpayers are currently paying many billions for the
wrecking of an old nuclear power plant. (They are also paying many
billions for the transfer of nuclear waste from a salt mine which is
threatened by flooding. The power companies only pay for the
building of the plants, and take money for the energy; wrecking and
nuclear waste do not interest them. Nuclear power
seems cheap because of this,
and because misled politicians are charging special
taxes on the supposedly “climate-damaging” fossil fuel, as
opposed to the “clean” nuclear power.) – So the
countless plants will keep working, and heap up more and more
nuclear waste. Thousands of future generations will have to watch,
maintain and protect from natural catastrophes and terrorists the
deadly waste of a technology which was
already obsolete at the time
when the waste was produced.
However, in the distant future, if in spite of all efforts our physics
cannot evolve, and hot fusion does not work, the necessity could arise
to resort to nuclear power, because of the limited supply of fossil
fuel. But this should really be the
last resort, and nothing to
be done just because of a pseudoscientific philosophy.
Q:
What can I do?
A: You can spread the word, by
recommending
this website to others. The more people know about these things, the
less likely it is that the nuclear plans
succeed. You may write a commentary for this website, or ask me
another question. If you don’t like the design or architecture
of this website, tell me. You can find an address
here. Or you may create
another website. If you like to research the field yourself, be
cautious about sources written later than 1980, because many
of those, if not most, are pure pseudoscience. Here is an
example: A few years ago I googled
“ice age”, clicked on the first entry and was surprised to
find the astronomical ice age hypothesis canonized. The others were
not even mentioned anymore! The theory was explained and
“proven” so neatly that I didn’t suspect anything; I
really believed that this is now the final solution. A few weeks later
I learned by chance that I had been on a known climatist website!
– Of course the astronomical hypothesis is far from being
proven, but climatists propagate it because they want us to believe
that the atmosphere is rather predictable. What is more predictable
than astronomical events? (Most ice age theories assume unpredictable
causes, like
A. T. Wilson’s theory
an outburst of Antarctic ice which leads to a massive increase of
sun-reflecting pack ice. Such theories are the nightmare of all
climate prophets!) – So what I had taken for the result of the
latest scientific progress was nothing but ideological propaganda.
This was my first encounter with hardcore climatism, and as
embarrassing as it is to admit: this time even I fell for
pseudoscience, although the phenomenon pseudoscience was already long
known to me, and although I had prior knowledge in the field. –
This website contains several links to Wikipedia, which in general
is a reliable scientific source. But this is different with
ideologically charged topics. Since Wikipedia bases primarily on
majorities, fanatical would-be experts can easily outvote the real
experts (who are normally undisturbed by non-experts). With climatism
it’s even worse because many real experts follow the
“politically correct” opinion too, against their better
judgement. According to
EIKE, the German Wikipedia
is completely taken over by climatists. Be that as it may: since my
above experience I would never even think of consulting Wikipedia on
this topic. (More about majorities and democracy in the next
section!)
Also, you could help me think about why we are today so susceptible to
pseudoscience, and ideologies in general. Why are we so happy with
dogmas and “absolute truths”? How is it possible that an
intelligent person like Al Gore
who at the age of 19 hears a theory about Earth’s atmosphere
from an oceanographer (Roger Revelle), carries
this theory with him for decades, without ever doubting it, and
without ever asking the real experts in the
field? Or – even worse –
did he ask them, but then
reject their answer, so he could stick to his ideology, claiming that
they merely closed their eyes before his “inconvenient
truth”? Could it be that Revelle was charismatic like a guru,
with piercing eyes nobody could resist? (I suspect this because Gore
later acted like a missionary who has the irrepressible urge to
convert everybody to his wonderful new religion, which he believes
will save the world.) Do many of us need ideologies as something to
hold on, because they lost touch with their real (spiritual)
religion?
I have no definite answers to these questions, but I know one thing
for sure: Ideology is the archenemy of all science. (Real religion
never is: Max Planck, e.g.,
was deeply religious.) – 400 years ago, Copernicus, Galileo and
Kepler said that the Earth revolves around the sun. The pope said that
the sun revolves around the Earth. Either way, life went on, farmers
ploughed their fields and people had to eat. They could easily ignore
the academic quarrel between Galileo and the Vatican. Today this is
completely different: With 7 billion people on Earth we
need science, in order to
survive. We just cannot afford to indulge in ideologies anymore, or
else they will eventually kill us all.
Q:
Isn’t this website
pseudoscientific too, by turning to the general public?
A: In a way, yes. But
sometimes you can only fight fire with fire. Now that the damage is
done, and distorted scientific content has leaked to the general
public, we have to turn to it too, in order to hopefully undo the
damage.
Generally, scientific content cannot be discussed by the public, but
only among experts who have
learned something. One
visitor of this website suggested that people should indeed – as
I wrote in the
“Links” section
as a joke – elect the best experts; this would be democratic. If
there will ever be such an election for the world’s best
meteorologist, Al Gore will probably be elected, and appointed World
Climate President. Of course he never learned anything about the
subject, but who cares as long as he’s popular? From his throne
he will make every CO2-related decision in the world. The election
will top everything we have ever seen: All the political parties,
Greenpeace, the World Wildlife Fund and others will hand out billions
of pamphlets, and organize countless parades, concerts, and television
shows for the “good cause”. People all over the world will
bravely stand together against a chemical substance, and feel very
proud and happy.
Unfortunately, natural science doesn’t work that way. If this
method had been applied during the past 400 years, we still lived
today like in the Middle Ages. Natural science is not based on
popularity or publicity but on
knowledge, and in fact is a
dictatorship, not a democracy. The dictator is nature itself. We
cannot put to vote whether the gullet is connected to the stomach or
to the knee; nature has decided that. We cannot change it, even if
every single person on Earth wanted to. We have to accept the
decisions of the “dictator nature”, but we can
learn to understand it, and
we have to learn for years,
in order to understand just
one scientific field.
About 50 years ago, an oceanographer
(Roger Revelle) and a
physical chemist (Hans Suess)
wrote an article about the absorption of
atmospheric CO2 by the oceans. They had found that CO2 is not as
easily absorbed as scientists thought until then, so more CO2 stays in
the atmosphere than expected. This was their field of expertise, and
undoubtedly their research was competent so far. But then they
concluded that, according to Svante Arrhenius, this would cause a
terrible heat catastrophe. This was
not their field of expertise,
and neither had it been Arrhenius’s. Moreover, 60 years had
passed since he had published his
CO2 speculation. Meteorology was still rather
rudimentary at the end of the 19th century.
The meteorologists of the 1960s read the article, but reached a
different conclusion. They simply knew more about
Earth’s atmosphere than Arrhenius, Revelle or Suess. Of course
they knew about the “greenhouse effect” of CO2 (which is
elementary), but they could put it into its proper place among
many other things, which Revelle and Suess had never even heard of.
Suess apparently accepted the verdict of the experts, but Revelle did
not. When he realized that the meteorologists rejected his theory, he
turned to nonscientists and teenagers, like 19-year-old Al Gore who
knew nothing about the atmosphere, and thus believed every word this
famous scientist said. Perhaps he did not even know that Revelle
was really an oceanographer who dabbled in a field he knew little
about. Later, nonscientists like Gore preached to other nonscientists.
A pseudoscientific cult and pseudoreligion had arisen which had
nothing to do with natural science anymore, and which spread much
faster than any real religion in the past, thanks to modern
communication technology.
Now we have only two choices left: sit back and wait until
nature corrects the error
through an ice age, with the risk of nuclear devastation in the
meantime, or try correcting it ourselves, by turning to the misled
public once again, although in
principle this is the typical behavior of pseudoscientists.
Roger Revelle and the likes of his are not violating the code of some
secret society but the scientific
spirit, by seeking appreciation from nonscientists. Revelle was
a scientist himself and an expert in his field; he should have known
better. What had he said if non-oceanographers had spread
oceanographic theories? The only explanation for his pseudoscientific
behavior I can think of is the extreme fear of the future he must have
had, which clouded his clear thinking, together with his blind faith
in Arrhenius’s theory.
Q:
What caused the half-degree global
warming since 1980?
A: On this website, four
possible causes are mentioned:
1) Natural variation, like the ice ages or the medieval warm
period.
2) CO2 (the only cause climatists will accept).
3) Heavy deforestation, especially in the tropics. (See
here.)
4) Poor measurement or fraud, i.e. the half-degree is not real. (See
here.)
Personally, I prefer none of these hypotheses to the others. Possibly
the truth is a combination of two or more of them. There may also be
more hypotheses. However, climatism has nothing to do with the
half-degree. The only link between the two is the fact that
today’s climatists use
the half-degree as an argument.
Roger Revelle taught
climatism long before the half-degree; he did not need it, and it was
certainly not a half-degree he was worried about, but a much bigger
and continued warming over time, based on
Svante Arrhenius’s
CO2 speculation. Revelle’s fears were
probably intensified by the growing general awareness during the
1960s, that humankind can severely harm the planet Earth. Indeed we
did some bad things to the environment, including the atmosphere,
during the past 50 years, which led some to condemn civilization and
science altogether. However, it was science that provided the remedies:
Science gave us catalytic converters, and science showed us how to get
rid of the acid rain. Pseudoscience, on the other hand, never helps
anybody, except, sometimes, the pseudoscientists, like in the case of
John C. Symmes who became
famous with his Hollow Earth Theory in the 19th century. Pseudoscience
is not about nature but about subjective conditions, like
fear in the case of
climatism, or insanity in the
case of the hollow Earth. Therefore, pseudoscience cannot help handle
nature.
There was a headline some time ago: “More CO2 today than ever
during the past 800000 years!” So what? There are also more
toothbrushes today on Earth than during the past 800000 years. This
doesn’t mean anything, unless we firmly believe in the
meteorological deductions of non-meteorologists
from Arrhenius’s speculation. Nobody knew this theory until CO2
became conspicuous; now there is a webpage “The Legacy of Svante
Arrhenius”, so as if the researcher of electrolysis
had achieved nothing in his life but this speculation. There must be
thousands of scientific speculations from the past 400 years. It will
hardly be helpful if we, whenever something in the environment strikes
us, search the complete history of science for suitable speculations.
– Of course we change the planet, by building houses, increasing
CO2 and so on. We are entitled to do so: we are a part of evolution
and the universe, as well as volcanoes or asteroids, which change the
planet too. What sense does it make to distinguish
“natural” and “artificial” changes? We only
got used to this distinction during the past half-century. The
important thing is that whenever there is a
real danger of either kind,
science can help us, and pseudoscience can not. Science helped us
against the “artificial” acid rain, as well as it protects
us from the “natural” volcanoes, by improving the
prediction of their eruptions.
But as for the half-degree, not even the most fanatical climatists can
seriously believe that it’s dangerous. They gladly use it as an
argument for their cause, but what they fear is the huge warming they
deduce from Arrhenius’s theory, a warming which never really
happened, but which they firmly believe in. Consequently, after a
global cooling was reported recently, climatists quickly announced
that this could only be temporary, and would be followed by an even
bigger warming. Climatism is an ideology which is completely immune
to reality. This I meant when I
wrote that this ideology
will stay until well into the next ice age. (Disregard of reality is a
common feature of pseudoscience: There are still supporters of the
hollow Earth today who claim that all satellite images are fake,
because they don’t show the alleged openings at Earth’s
poles. Cp.
here.)
– Climatism is only successful because it hits us in a soft
spot: the environment. We all are eager today to protect it, but few
are aware of the fundamental difference between climatism and all the
other measures (like, e.g., the catalytic converters): All of them are
based on sound scientific research, while climatism is based solely on
pseudoscientific deductions from a historical speculation. Only
sound scientific knowledge can really help the environment.
Q:
Fukushima is not so dangerous, so
what’s the problem?
A: First I’d like to
stress that everything on this website, except for the following, was
written before the terrible
catastrophe in Japan, of which the nuclear accident at Fukushima is
only a small part.
Generally, accidents like Fukushima or Chernobyl are not the real
problem with nuclear power. They are just the tiny tip of a giant
iceberg, which is nuclear waste. This dangerous waste is
millions or billions as much
as what is stored at any given moment at a nuclear plant, and it emits
deadly radiation for many thousands of years. In Germany, it’s
buried in salt mines. A few kilometers underneath these mines flows
glowing magma. Nobody knows when at this place will be a volcano
(although well-paid geologists assure us that it’s impossible).
When this happens, and humankind forgot about the waste (what do
we know about the holes the
old Egyptians dug?) or cannot remove it in time, a big part of the
waste will be blown into the atmosphere, which will end all
discussions about the climate (or anything), worldwide and
permanently. This is the real
problem.
In my old physics book from school, where nuclear power is praised,
it’s said that the salt mines were only temporary, and that the
final decision about a real solution was yet to be made. At the time,
the enthusiasm over a new energy source clouded the view of many
scientists. – The final decision never came, because there is no
real solution. Meanwhile the waste keeps piling up in the mines,
because most of us don’t care about the future of the planet,
including the climatists, in spite of their constant talk about our
“responsibility for future generations”. Only when, every
25 years, a nuclear accident occurs, the public is shocked, only to
forget it shortly after.
In the last section I wrote that we are entitled to change the planet.
But this does not include long-lasting changes that are
scientifically proven
dangerous. Our experts are able to calculate to a high precision which
kinds and amounts of radiation our nuclear waste will emit at any
given time in the future. This is completely different from the future
climate: Here the experts know next to nothing,
only some amateurs believe to
know everything.
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